Why Ajit Pawar’s NCP is BJP-Sena Mahayuti’s weakest link

“Even if I sit next to them in Cabinet meetings, I feel like vomiting afterward,” said Shiv Sena (Shinde) leader Tanaji Sawant, as he openly expressing his disdain for politicians of the Nationalist Congress Party (Ajit Pawar) in September.
With the Maharashtra Assembly election approaching, while the ruling Mahayuti has not reached a consensus on its seat-sharing arrangement, it is not the only challenge. There is a clear sense of discomfort among the Mahayuti alliance partners, the Shiv Sena (Shinde) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), with the NCP, led by Ajit Pawar.
For the ruling Mahayuti alliance, according to experts, Ajit Pawar’s NCP could prove to be a challenge.
It’s not just because of Ajit Pawar’s repeated “I am stuck as a deputy”- rants and CM aspirations, also due to shaky Lok Sabha election numbers, and a growing sense of unease among Mahayuti partners.
“In the Mahayuti, the Ajit Pawar wheel is off; therefore, the vulnerabilities are huge in the alliance,” political commentator Sanjay Jha said during a panel discussion on India Today TV.
Ajit Pawar’s NCP can be seen as the wobbly wheel in an alliance more like an autorickshaw, where the other two wheels, the BJP and the Shiv Sena, seem to be running in tandem.
The Lok Sabha tally of the NCP (one seat), among other things, attests to that.
In July 2023, feeling sidelined, Ajit Pawar made an all-important decision to break away, splitting the party formed by uncle Sharad Pawar. He joined forces with the BJP and Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena, forming the Mahayuti alliance.
This move to ally with the BJP and Sena, ‘natural Hintutva allies’, was seen as a strategic gamble. But it did not yield the expected results in the Lok Sabha elections.
The Lok Sabha elections held earlier this year were a stark indicator of the NCP’s dwindling influence within the Mahayuti alliance.
Ajit Pawar’s faction managed to secure only one out of the four seats it contested, a stark contrast to the eight seats won by Sharad Pawar’s NCP, which is part of the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). The Mahayuti was pushed down to 17 seats.
The MVA walked away with 31 of 48 seats in Maharashtra.
Because of the wobbly wheel that the NCP is coming out as, Sanjay Jha said, “for the Mahayuti, the vulnerabilities are huge. It is pretty public”.
“The vomiting statement was a huge public embarrassment for the NCP,” added Jha.
The poor performance, thus, has significantly diminished Ajit Pawar’s bargaining power within the alliance. And the allies and foes both noted that.
Senior BJP leaders have expressed concerns that aligning with Ajit Pawar did not only damage their electoral tally but also diluted their stance against corruption.
Ajit Pawar had been allegedly involved in various scandals. In April, the Economic Offences Wing of the Mumbai Police gave a clean chit to Maharashtra Deputy CM Ajit Pawar, in an alleged money-laundering scam.
Then there is the issue of not having benefited from the Ajit Pawar party. The NCP’s votes had not transferred to the BJP in expected numbers in the Lok Sabha election, noted BJP leader Devendra Fadnavis at the India Today Conclave in Mumbai in September.
Articles in the Sangh Parivar weeklies Organiser (English) and Vivek (Marathi) have voiced their displeasure with the alliance.
In August, BJP’s local leader Asha Buchke greeted Ajit’s cavalcade with black flags in Pune.
Ajit Pawar’s recent public interactions with Nawab Malik, a former NCP minister currently out on bail, have also raised eyebrows within the BJP.
“The NCP is very much aware that they are being shafted out because of their poor performance in the Lok Sabha,” author Sanjay Jha told India Today TV.
“The bottom-line is, the fact that Ajit Pawar is seen as a political liability, the BJP and the Shiv Sena are seeing that any seat given to the NCP is like a debt deficit for the Mahayuti,” Jha added.
Moreover, Ajit Pawar lacks the advantage of a strong, cadre-based constituency that his uncle, Sharad Pawar, enjoys.
Although the MVA partners have repeatedly mocked Ajit Pawar with the “machine-washed” jibe, the label of being an ‘opportunist’ continues to stick, refusing to fade away. That is why experts believe Ajit Pawar to be a liability and his NCP faction the weakest link in the Mahayuti.